It’s baby kissing season again

By Julie Abramson, CCF National Policy Director

A federal election will be called this year and state elections will be held in South Australia and Tasmania in March and Victoria in November.
Whilst there has been much speculation about when a federal poll will be held, most commentators expect it to be in the second half of the year. There is still much uncertainty about whether the government will seek a double dissolution election. How this arises is set out below.
Members will recollect that the CPRS (also known as the Emissions Trading Scheme or ETS) has now been rejected twice by the Senate.
Whilst the second rejection of the bill technically gave the government the opportunity to go to the voters on a double dissolution election, they have in fact opted to reintroduce the bill with the amendments negotiated with the Liberals (under Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership), at the first sittings in the New Year.
It is important to be aware that this bill incorporating the amendments, is not the same as that rejected twice by the Senate, and its rejection will restart the process for a double dissolution – although the trigger of the first bills rejection (twice) will stay on foot.
Coalition opposition
As members know, the coalition under Tony Abbott does not support the CPRS Bill, and will oppose the legislation. Indeed this was part of the leadership change for the Liberals last year. With the Greens and independents also opposed the legislation cannot pass.
If the government does decide to proceed to a double dissolution election on its original bill, it does have certain timeframes in which it must act. At the outer limit in general, it cannot call such an election after 11 August 2010, because of rules in the Constitution - although it can hold the election itself right up until mid October.
The reason a double dissolution provides a mechanism to resolve a deadlock in the Senate, is because all of the Senate and the House of Representatives is dissolved. Normally only half the Senate faces the people at an election.
After the election the government can re present the rejected bill, and if again rejected in the Senate, it can then ask for a joint sitting of both the House of Representatives and the Senate to pass the bill.
Because the government will always have a majority in the lower house (and often by a significant amount) it can assure passage of its legislation. Hence this is how it resolves a deadlock. Technically it needs more than 50% of the total number of the senators and members or an absolute majority.
Election windows
Speaking politically, the government will have certain windows available to it to call an election, and one of the important factors will be the timing of the May budget, and how the economy is tracking.
We think it likely that if the government does seek a double dissolution, it will do so on the bill for the CPRS, that is to be debated in February when Parliament recommences. That bill also has time constraints. If it is rejected twice, a double dissolution election cannot take place within 6 months of when the regular election is due. What all this adds up to is pushing an election into the later half of the year.
The election timing and the type of election, will become a bit clearer as the Parliamentary sitting year starts. There are risks for the government in a double dissolution, because whilst it will ensure passage of its disputed legislation after the election, independent and minor party senators can be more easily elected, because of the method by which senators are elected (proportional representation).
The major issues we will continue to be pressing politicians and policy makers on over the next 12 months, include procurement issues (such as contract packaging, tendering, forward capital works programs), skills shortages and the need to support training for our sector, and broad business based issues such as taxation.
Tax review wait
On that point, like other lobby groups, we are awaiting the outcomes of the Henry Tax Review. In particular we are focusing on any changes to fuel excise and also road user charges. We will also watch what happens on capital gains tax as this is an important area for members buying and selling businesses.
We are also most keen to hear from you on what issues you would believe we should focus on. Ross Barrett, Chris White and myself, are all very happy to ha